Our mission that will help you navigate the brand new regular is fueled by subscribers. To take pleasure in limitless entry to our journalism, subscribe today.
Democratic nominee Joe Biden is heading into the primary presidential debate on Tuesday main President Donald Trump in seven states the Republican gained 4 years in the past.
If Biden had been to win each state carried by Hillary Clinton together with the seven battleground states during which he’s at present main Trump (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), he’d stroll away with a minimum of a 347 electoral votes. A win solely requires 270 electoral votes.
And Biden is tied with Trump in Iowa, and lagging by 1 share level in Georgia—a state Democrats haven’t carried for the reason that 1992 normal election—in accordance with RealClearPolitics ballot averages.
For Trump to win in 2020, he’d seemingly have to win a minimum of 5 of the states during which Biden at present leads: Arizona (+3.4 factors), Florida (+1.3 factors), Pennsylvania (+4.7 factors), North Carolina (+0.8 factors), and Ohio (+3.3 factors). If he wins these, Trump can seemingly afford to lose battleground states like Michigan (+5.2 factors) and Wisconsin (+7 factors) the place Biden is at present main.
Merely put: If Trump doesn’t acquire vital floor within the remaining six weeks earlier than election day (November 3), he’ll be confronted with pulling off an even bigger upset than 4 years in the past.
The silver lining for Trump? Like Clinton 4 years in the past, Biden hasn’t topped 50% in most battleground state ballot averages. He’s solely over 50% in Maine (53.8%), Minnesota (50.4%), and Wisconsin (50.7%). Which means there are sufficient undecided or third-party get together voters in most battleground states to probably swing these states to Trump.
Extra politics coverage from Fortune:
- The 13 Trump officials under fire for violating the Hatch Act
- Sexual misconduct allegations are playing out just like they did in 2016—even after the #MeToo motion
- Why online voting should wait
- President Trump’s “patriotic education” commission can’t truly inform colleges what to show
- The activist employee hasn’t gone away